Amphi_Cilento – Implementation of predictive models for the adaptation of amphibians to climate change

Staff

08/12/2025

Project sheet

The project stems from a fascinating idea: artificial aquatic habitats (AWS) could become unexpected allies in the conservation of Mediterranean amphibians, which are increasingly threatened by environmental degradation and climate change. To verify this, the project follows three main directions:

Understanding how the landscape is connected: using ecological models and electrical circuit theory, the project will study the connectivity between AWS and natural water sites (NWS), reconstructing the amphibians’ potential pathways and identifying where the landscape facilitates or hinders their movements.
Identifying the key nodes of the ecological network: using graph-based analyses, the project will assess how much each habitat — artificial or natural — contributes to maintaining a functional network, determining whether AWS can play a strategic role in connecting isolated populations.
Assessing resilience to future climate scenarios: the project will investigate whether these artificial habitats are capable of providing stable water and refuges even during droughts or heatwaves, thus becoming an essential support for the species’ survival.

The project will produce practical, evidence-based guidelines, demonstrating how artificial habitats can be integrated with natural ones and contribute to regional biodiversity, turning a simple insight into a concrete strategy for the future of amphibians.

Keywords

Project name

Amphi_Cilento – Implementation of predictive models for the adaptation of amphibians to climate change

Duration

20 months

Location

Cilento, Vallo di Diano and Alburni National Park.

Responsible organisation

NBFC

Budget

80,000.00€ (NBFC contribution 60,000.00€, beneficiary co-funding 20,000.00€).

Index

Objectives.Stakeholders involved Main expected results Dissemination of results.

Objectives.

The project begins with a key question: can artificial aquatic habitats truly help amphibians? To find out, the work proceeds along three directions. First, amphibian movements across the landscape are analyzed to assess ecological connectivity between artificial and natural sites, developing models that highlight corridors, barriers, and potentially crucial areas. The next step is a comparison between artificial and natural habitats, using graph theory to understand which sites play a central role within the ecological network and to identify innovative solutions for land management.

Finally, the project looks toward the future, using climate data and statistical models to assess the ability of artificial habitats to ensure amphibian survival during periods of drought and other climatic challenges. In conclusion, the project explores how human interventions can become strategic resources for biodiversity in a changing world.

Stakeholders involved

The project involves strong engagement from various stakeholders, such as:

landowners — livestock farmers, agricultural workers, and agritourism managers, due to their central role in the daily care of the landscape
Third Sector entities — from volunteer organizations to social cooperatives and associations for social promotion — creating a collaborative network that brings together expertise, experience, and environmental awareness.

Main expected results

The project aims to demonstrate the true value of artificial aquatic habitats (AWS) in the conservation of Mediterranean amphibians. The expected results concern three key aspects. First, ecological connectivity between artificial and natural habitats will be clarified through landscape models and electrical circuit theory, in order to understand how much these sites facilitate amphibian movements. Next, the project will compare the effectiveness of AWS with that of natural sites, using graph theory and network analyses to identify the most important nodes and determine which habitats truly support the integrity of the entire ecological network.

Finally, the resilience of amphibians to climate change will be assessed by verifying whether artificial habitats can provide refuges capable of ensuring species survival under critical environmental conditions. Overall, the project will show how AWS can become practical tools for addressing future ecological and climatic challenges.

For Triturus carnifex, artificial aquatic sites are of primary importance for conservation, since within the Park area the species is found only in this type of environment. Antonio Romano

Dissemination of results.

The project’s results have strong potential for dissemination and replicability. With regard to artificial aquatic habitats, the methodology developed to assess their role in ecological connectivity can be easily reused in other regions, adapting it to different species and habitats.

Similarly, the ecological connectivity models — including tools based on electrical circuit theory — represent a versatile approach: they can be applied in many other contexts to analyze the ecological networks of different communities, providing a replicable scientific framework that is useful for land management.

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